Republican Ken Paxton leads Democrat James Talarico in a Texas Senate poll released on October 13, 2026, with a lead of 47.2 percent to 46.7 percent. This contest is noted as the most expensive of the 2026 midterm cycle. According to a summary from Quantus Insights, Paxton's narrow lead is attributed to Republican strength among older and rural voters, while Talarico holds an advantage among independents.
The polling company indicates that Talarico has maxed out support among Democrats in Texas, while the poll shows he has a 15-point lead among independent voters, with 52 percent supporting him compared to 37 percent for Paxton. Paxton's support among Republican voters has increased to 87 percent, up from the low 80s following the primary and runoff with outgoing Senator John Cornyn, which involved over $130 million in spending against him.
Paxton leads among voters aged 65 and older, with 56 percent compared to Talarico's 39 percent. He also leads among those aged 45 to 64 by 49 percent to 45 percent. However, Talarico has significant support from younger voters, leading by 62 percent to 29 percent among those under 30, although this demographic typically has lower turnout in midterm elections.
The survey also highlights perceptions of alignment with Texas voters, showing that 48.6 percent believe Paxton aligns with them, while 45.5 percent feel the same about Talarico. A notable portion, 48.3 percent, believes Talarico does not align with Texas voters.
Republican-aligned groups have significantly invested in the campaign, with Axios reporting that the Senate Leadership Fund-aligned Texas PAC spent $131 million in September, with additional funds expected in October. Notably, Elon Musk has reportedly contributed $276 million to support Republican efforts through various entities.
Talarico's campaign has faced scrutiny due to his absence from the campaign trail attributed to the flu, during which he was not publicly seen for two weeks. He re-emerged at a concert with singer Kacey Musgraves over the past weekend. Early in-person voting in Texas is set to begin on October 19, 2026.