Aaron Day's third-party campaign previously impacted Republican Kelly Ayotte's Senate reelection bid in 2016. He is now attempting to expand this strategy nationally. Day plans to spend up to $2.5 million to support alternate candidates, such as Libertarians, in tight Senate races, aiming to disrupt Republican chances and potentially aid Democratic candidates.
Day's approach involves utilizing his Stark Freedom PAC to fund online advertisements that increase name recognition for these alternate candidates. He believes that even a small increase in their vote share could significantly affect the outcomes of closely contested races.
In an interview with Semafor, Day stated, "You call it a spoiler campaign, I call it holding Republicans accountable." His website explicitly mentions, "We fund the margin. It costs the GOP the Senate."
He is focusing on eight states where he believes boosting third-party candidates could hinder Republican nominees: Texas, Iowa, New Hampshire, Minnesota, South Carolina, Michigan, Ohio, and Kansas. Day likens his strategy to a 'Moneyball' approach in politics, suggesting that it requires less funding to influence election margins than to win outright.
Day pointed out that many voters are unaware of third-party options, and many candidates lack the resources to participate in debates. He referenced previous instances where third-party candidates affected election outcomes, including Libertarian support for Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in Montana and Jill Stein's impact on Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign in 2016.
Despite his intentions, some Republican leaders are skeptical of Day's efforts. Day's goals include checking President Donald Trump through legislative gridlock, asserting that a Democratic majority would stall legislation he opposes.
While some third-party candidates appreciate Day's support, their objectives differ. Ted Brown, a Libertarian candidate in Texas, stated he aims to win rather than simply disrupt Republican control.
Day's model could also be applied to challenge Democratic candidates in the future by boosting Green Party candidates. He initially intended to run for office himself but shifted his focus to supporting other candidates after negotiations with Republicans did not meet his expectations.
His advertisements are tailored to each race, often featuring critiques of Republican candidates. Republicans are particularly concerned about his influence in New Hampshire but doubt his effectiveness in other states.
The impact of Day's campaign on the upcoming elections remains uncertain, as the polling percentages for third-party candidates are currently low.