Balkan Countries' Relations with Israel Reflect Domestic Politics and Strategic Interests

Balkan countries’ ties with Israel reflect domestic politics, defense deals, and strategic interests rather than a united regional position. Throughout Israel’s military actions in Gaza, Europe's position has been somewhat aligned, with some countries like Spain and the Republic of Ireland being more vocal in their condemnation of Israel. However, there has been a noticeable shift from unconditional support for Israel to concerns over its actions in much of Europe. In the Balkans, divergent policies towards Israel are influenced by domestic calculations, transactional diplomacy, and unresolved identity politics, according to experts. Marko Prelec, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, stated, "The Balkan countries have almost no common positions at all, and so it’s not surprising their positions towards Israel and Gaza are all over the map." He noted that while there is genuine revulsion towards Israeli policy in Gaza and sympathy for Palestinians, particularly among Bosnian Muslims, most countries in the region base their positions on unrelated interests. Florian Bieber, a professor of Southeast European history and politics at Austria’s University of Graz, emphasized that regional consensus is nearly impossible, saying, "The position towards Israel is strongly shaped by domestic politics and also national narratives, which makes a regional or even a country-specific position unlikely." This fragmentation is particularly evident in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the war in Gaza has intensified existing ethno-national divisions. Bosniak political representatives and much of the public in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina have expressed strong solidarity with Palestinians, while leaders in Republika Srpska have been openly pro-Israel, and some Croat political figures have also adopted a more sympathetic tone towards Israel. Bieber explained that Bosniak solidarity with Palestinians is often viewed through the lens of their historical experiences during the 1990s. Conversely, leaders in Republika Srpska, led by former President Milorad Dodik, have embraced Israel. Foreign policy analyst and journalist Bosko Jaksic noted that for Dodik, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend – Jews and Orthodox Serbs against Muslims." This dynamic allows him to maintain ties with Israel while also aligning with Russia and the Trump administration. Prelec added that Bosnian Serb outreach to Israel represents an attempt to find allies for its unpopular separatist agenda. In Serbia, relations with Israel combine defense economics with foreign policy. Despite historically friendly relations with Palestine, Belgrade has exported arms to Israel since October 2023. The relationship has expanded beyond exports, with Serbia opening an Israeli-linked drone assembly plant in September, highlighting the growing defense cooperation. Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy and grand strategy at King’s College London, noted that Serbia’s defense industry is motivated by profit, while also pursuing broader geopolitical ambitions. He stated, "In the past three years, there has been a tilt towards Israel regarding security cooperation, while diplomatically Serbia tries to be cautious in multilateral institutions due to its ties with the wider Islamic world." Vuksanovic also pointed out that Belgrade views Israel as a partner to gain support from Israeli lobby groups and access to the Trump administration, especially amid domestic political opposition. Jaksic warned of the risks involved, stating, "Due to the significant increase in ammunition exports to Israel during the war in Gaza, Serbia risks being accused of complicity in genocide." For Kosovo and Albania, foreign policy regarding Israel is closely tied to security alliances with Washington. Under the 2020 Washington Agreement, Kosovo recognized Israel in exchange for Israeli recognition of Kosovo’s independence and opened its embassy in Jerusalem. Pristina's decision to open its embassy defies the stance of the wider international community. Jaksic noted, "Israel’s growing influence in the Western Balkans is evident, including investments and military cooperation." In Albania, Prime Minister Edi Rama’s government has maintained strong political ties with Israel, deepening cooperation with Israeli cybersecurity companies following cyberattacks. In Croatia, foreign policy on Gaza has been affected by a rift between conservative Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic and President Zoran Milanovic, with Plenkovic’s government taking a cautious EU approach while Milanovic has condemned Israel’s military actions. Slovenia has seen ideological shifts, with the previous center-left government adopting measures against Israel, while conservative forces have sought to reverse these policies. Smaller NATO members like Montenegro and North Macedonia have aligned quietly with standard EU and NATO statements, avoiding high-profile disputes. Romania and Bulgaria maintain a cautious tone towards Israel, balancing statements at the UN with military cooperation. Greece has maintained a robust strategic partnership with Israel, signing a $3.5 billion missile deal. The varied responses across the Balkans illustrate that regional Middle Eastern policy is often driven by domestic interests rather than a unified stance.