Democrats have announced the addition of six candidates to their "red to blue" program, expanding their midterm battleground to districts where Donald Trump won by an average of 16 points in the previous election. This move involves increased resources, strategy guidance, fundraising, and training from the Democratic Campaign Committee (DCCC). However, historical analysis suggests that late additions to the target list often do not result in electoral success.
In the 2024 elections, only one of three late additions, April McClain Delaney in Maryland’s 6th District, won, and that was an open seat previously held by a Democrat. In 2022, five of six late candidates lost, with the only winner again being in an open, Democratic-held seat. In 2020, both late additions lost, and out of 33 candidates promoted by the "red to blue" program, only one was successful.
In 2018, Democrats flipped 41 seats, but the late additions to their target list were largely unsuccessful as well, with only one candidate winning out of nine added in the final weeks of campaigning. This time, Democrats are optimistic due to factors such as an unpopular president and high fuel prices. DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene stated that the candidates are resonating with voters by focusing on lowering costs.
However, some Democratic strategists express concerns about overstretching resources, particularly as Republicans maintain a cash advantage. A Democratic strategist noted that focusing on races with a better chance of success would be more prudent. Recent polling analyses suggest that surveys may be overestimating support for Democrats, with some Republican strategists accusing Democrats of overconfidence.
The six candidates added to the "red to blue" program are: - Chris Jones in Arkansas’s 2nd District, challenging Rep. French Hill (R-AR) - Dwayne Romero in Colorado’s 3rd District, challenging Rep. Jeff Hurd (D-CO) - Eliott Rodriguez in Florida’s 27th District, challenging Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) - Teresa Benitez-Thompson in Nevada’s 2nd District, an open seat due to Rep. Mark Amodei’s retirement - Blake Gendebien in New York’s 21st District, running against Republican Anthony Constantino - Justin J. Pearson in Tennessee’s 9th District, running in a redrawn district
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The article is authored by Rob Crilly, who invites comments and story tips via email.