The number of ships reporting attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz has reached a record high, according to an analysis by BBC Verify based on data from the UK maritime agency. Twelve vessels were attacked between October 5 and 11, marking the highest number of weekly strikes reported to the UK's Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency since the onset of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. The previous week recorded ten ships reporting attacks. Six vessels were struck on a single day, last Sunday, which is noted as a one-day high. Four attacks have been reported this week.
As the frequency of strikes has increased, the recovery in oil shipments through the strait observed last month has slowed, according to industry data. BBC Verify compiled incident reports published by the UKMTO and created a timeline based on the first date cited in each report, noting that the dates may vary between the attack date and the reporting date.
Experts suggest that Tehran is attacking ships to assert greater control over the waterway, particularly as the US military has increased the number of tankers it is escorting through the southern part of the strait to avoid Iranian strikes. Additionally, Iran is reportedly conducting more attacks on vessels further away from the Strait of Hormuz.
The US military's Central Command, which oversees operations in the Middle East, stated on social media that despite the attacks, "commercial traffic continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz with coordinated protection from US forces and regional partners."
One of the six reported attacks on Sunday involved the Nicaragua-flagged tanker Petro Dolphin, which was filmed on fire by the crew of a nearby smaller boat. The vessel was reportedly struck by a drone near Sohar Anchorage, Oman, over 250 kilometers (150 miles) from the strait. Eleven Indian seafarers were rescued, but two remain missing, according to the Forward Seamen's Union of India.
This week has seen continued attacks, including the sinking of the container ship GFS Pride after being struck by an unknown projectile in the strait on Tuesday, with all 21 crew members safely evacuated. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran released footage claiming to show the same ship sinking, alleging it was carrying "2,500 containers of contraband" and had taken an "unauthorized route."
Middle East oil exports have decreased as the number of ship strikes has risen. On October 13, approximately 12.6 million barrels per day passed through the strait, down from 15 million barrels reported at the end of September, according to data from trade intelligence firm Kpler. This is compared to a pre-war baseline of around 17 million barrels per day.
The recent surge in attacks coincides with US Navy data indicating an 85% increase in the number of vessels receiving assistance to navigate the Strait of Hormuz during the first ten days of October compared to the same period in August. Most oil being shipped from Gulf Arab states is now transported using a "shuttle" system, where a fleet of tankers loads cargo and sails through the strait before transferring it to larger tankers in the Gulf of Oman. These shuttle ships typically follow a route near Oman's coastline, which Iran deems "unauthorized," insisting that vessels take an alternative route closer to its shore.
Assisted transits were a significant factor in helping to restore oil flows from the Middle East to pre-war levels in September. This figure does not include Iranian exports, which have halted entirely due to the US blockade of Iranian ports and ships.
Martin Kelly, CEO of Orbital Risk Intelligence, stated that Iran has "evolved its strategy" in response to the diminishing control over the strait, conducting "near daily or multiple attacks every single day." He noted that the aim is to prevent ships from passing through and to deter others.
The IRGC's navy has indicated that attacks will not be confined to the Strait of Hormuz and announced a "new deployment formation" across the region, according to state media. Kelly further explained that Iran is expanding its attacks to target ships near the coasts of Gulf Arab states and in the Gulf of Oman. On October 8, a tanker was reportedly struck by multiple projectiles north of Qatar, resulting in multiple casualties, according to Vanguard. Another tanker was attacked near the UAE town of Al-Jazirah al-Hamra on October 9, with verified footage showing crew members donning life jackets as smoke billowed from the ship.