Polling data from the recent midterms shows that surveys underestimated Democratic support more significantly than in previous elections. Democrats are expected to win the House popular vote by approximately 13 percentage points, compared to an 8.9-point prediction from polls. Some pollsters, such as AtlasIntel, demonstrated accuracy in their projections, raising questions about the effectiveness of adjustments made to polling methodologies.
Key facts
- Democrats are projected to win the House popular vote by about 13 percentage points.
- Final polling average predicted a Democratic lead of 8.9 points.
- The 4-point gap is larger than average partisan errors in 2016 and 2024.
- Nearly 70% of national polls in 2024 used political weighting.
- AtlasIntel's final poll showed Democrats leading by 14.1 points.
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