Weather forecasting data indicates that temperatures in Europe may reach 50°C for the first time this month, with Spain, Portugal, and France experiencing their hottest days on record. The UK is emerging from its third heatwave of the year, with forecasts suggesting a fourth heatwave could occur soon.
GFS weather model data predicts that southern Portugal could see temperatures of 50°C on July 28, surpassing the current European record of 48.8°C, which was recorded in Sicily on August 11, 2021. Portugal's highest recorded temperature is 47.4°C, noted on August 1, 2003, in Amareleja. Coastal regions may be cooler, with highs of 45°C expected along the southern Atlantic coast, while inland areas could exceed 48°C.
Spain may also set a new record on July 28, with temperatures in the southwest potentially reaching 49°C, including in Seville, where the highest recorded temperature is 47.6°C from August 14, 2021. France's highest recorded temperature is 46°C, registered in Verargues on June 28, 2019, and several areas in southern France could see temperatures of 47°C on July 31.
Temperature anomaly maps indicate significant areas of Portugal, France, Spain, and Italy experiencing temperatures well above seasonal averages. Recent wildfires in central and northeastern Spain have led to evacuations, following earlier wildfires that resulted in 13 fatalities. Professor Bill McGuire from UCL has stated that the likelihood of exceeding 50°C in Europe is increasing due to climate change and the effects of El Niño, noting that Europe is heating faster than any other continent.