Elements of the Trump administration are reportedly debating whether the United States should support efforts to change Iran’s government as military actions intensify. This analysis, published by Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman, suggests discussions include encouraging an internal uprising and possibly reviving support for armed Iranian opposition groups, including Kurdish factions.
The urgency of this debate has increased as the U.S. resumes strikes against Iranian military targets. Officials are considering whether to maintain a focus on maritime security or to broaden efforts to weaken the Islamic Republic from within. This shift would present President Donald Trump with a choice between continuing military and economic pressure or pursuing the more ambitious goal of assisting in the removal of the Islamic Republic from power.
Trump indicated that he is open to diplomatic talks, stating that Iran is seeking discussions. He mentioned, "They want to meet desperately to try and end it because they’re getting decimated," during a press conference.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported strikes on Iranian military command centers and other capabilities as part of an effort to reduce threats to global shipping. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that the current military mission focuses on protecting global shipping interests.
Experts highlight the importance of distinguishing between weakening the regime and making its collapse a formal military objective. Richard Goldberg, a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted that while collapsing the regime remains a long-term goal, it is not currently a military objective.
The discussion around regime change raises questions about potential successors to Iran’s leadership and the risk of a prolonged conflict in the region. Previous proposals have included supporting Iranian Kurdish groups, which could provide partners on the ground without deploying U.S. forces. However, these groups remain divided and vulnerable to retaliation.
Majeed Gly, president of the American Kurdish Committee, remarked on recent clashes involving Kurdish groups, indicating a perceived change in the regime's strength. He cautioned against interpreting these clashes as a full-scale uprising but noted a shift in how some opposition forces view the regime.
The broader Iranian opposition remains fragmented, complicating efforts to encourage political change in Iran, as widespread opposition does not equate to a unified movement capable of replacing the current government.