The United States is projected to record its lowest homicide rate in over a century, according to a report released on July 23, 2026. The midyear report from the nonpartisan Council on Criminal Justice indicates that homicides declined by 18% across 30 major U.S. cities during the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, resulting in approximately 215 fewer killings. If this trend continues, the nation may achieve its lowest annual homicide rate in more than 100 years.
The report highlights that crime has become a significant issue for the current administration, with President Donald Trump advocating for increased federal intervention in cities he identifies as experiencing high levels of violent crime. Over the past year, Trump has deployed National Guard troops to Washington, D.C., and authorized similar actions in other cities, framing these measures as essential for restoring public safety.
Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, noted that no single policy accounts for the nationwide decline in homicides. The report indicates that murder rates are decreasing in cities with diverse political leadership, policing strategies, and economic conditions, suggesting that broader national trends are influencing these improvements.
The researchers tracked 13 crime categories and found declines in nine, including aggravated assault, carjacking, and residential burglary. Residential burglaries decreased by 13% from the previous year and are down about 50% compared to 2019. While some categories, such as shoplifting, domestic violence, sexual assault, and drug offenses, saw modest increases, drug offenses remain below pre-pandemic levels.
The report also noted that violent crimes are becoming less lethal, with the proportion of serious violent offenses resulting in death decreasing by 23%. However, approximately one-third of the cities studied reported increases in homicides, including Norfolk, Virginia, and San Francisco. Only Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis reported more homicides this year than during the same period in 2019, highlighting the overall decline in lethal violence across the country.