Paul Rivera, the author of the Democratic National Committee's 2024 election autopsy, confirmed findings that the war in Gaza negatively affected Kamala Harris' political standing. Rivera stated that he drafted this conclusion late last year but did not submit it to party leadership. He noted that the Biden administration's support for Israel during the conflict has been debated among Democrats regarding its impact on Harris' electoral performance.
Rivera's analysis indicates that the war in Gaza cost Harris votes, particularly in Michigan communities with significant Arab American populations, such as Dearborn. He published a 564-page report examining the electoral impact of the Gaza conflict, among other topics. Rivera's findings suggest that backlash from the Israel-Hamas war contributed to Harris' loss of tens of thousands of votes in Michigan, particularly in areas where Green Party support increased.
While Rivera emphasizes the complexity of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he asserts that the electoral results demonstrate its impact on the Harris campaign. He included in his report a photo of campaign literature from Michigan that urged voters not to support either Trump or Harris, framing it as a warning for Democrats.
Conversely, many moderate Democrats argue that the significance of Gaza's impact on the 2024 election has been exaggerated, citing surveys that show it is not a top concern for many voters. Rivera has faced criticism from various factions within the party for what they perceive as a flawed autopsy. He claimed to have submitted additional chapters to the DNC that were not included in the publicly released report, which the DNC denied receiving.