DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — After six months of war, Iran's leadership has consolidated around a core group of military generals and clerics entrenched in the ruling theocracy. They are preparing for a potentially prolonged confrontation with the U.S. and are focused on preventing unrest domestically.
This situation contrasts with U.S. President Donald Trump's initial expectations of regime change in Iran, which he claimed would bring more moderate officials to power.
Iran's leaders express skepticism towards any agreements with Trump, particularly after experiencing attacks during negotiations. They are also preparing for potential further assaults as the U.S. replenishes its interceptor supplies. Iran has threatened to escalate the conflict in response to ongoing American sanctions and blockades, which are exacerbating its economic difficulties.
Mohsen Rezaei, the new secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated, "If (Trump) wants to do something, we will retaliate in a seismic manner," adding that if the economic war persists, "not a single drop of oil will be exported" from the Persian Gulf.
Rezaei's appointment was part of a series of decrees by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who has recently established a new senior leadership, including key military positions. Khamenei's father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a bombing campaign by the U.S. and Israel on February 28.
The new head of the Basij, the Revolutionary Guard's volunteer street force, is Hossein Taeb, a hard-line cleric known for his role in suppressing protests in January, which resulted in numerous casualties. His appointment signals a commitment to preventing further unrest as economic dissatisfaction grows.
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has not been publicly seen since the death of his father, which may indicate heightened security concerns or personal injuries sustained during the strikes.
With the leadership changes announced on August 11 and 12, Khamenei has surrounded himself with long-time allies, including Rezaei and Taeb. Analyst Sascha Bruchmann noted that this group consists of senior officers who have worked together for decades, emphasizing internal cohesion.
Rezaei, 71, previously led the Revolutionary Guard during the Iran-Iraq War and has run for president multiple times since 2009. Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, 68, was confirmed as head of the Guard, having acted in this role since the previous commander was killed alongside the elder Khamenei. Other confirmations included Gen. Ali Ozmaei as head of the Guard's naval forces and Gen. Ali Abdollahi as military chief of staff.
Bruchmann indicated that the appointments reflect a desire for unity among the leadership. Homayoun Falakshahi, an oil analyst, remarked that these changes suggest a stronger influence of officials favoring a tougher stance.
Despite the potential for escalation, Falakshahi noted that Iran may struggle to increase hostilities without inciting retaliation that could worsen its situation. A ceasefire deal reached in June quickly deteriorated amid ongoing strikes, with Iran demanding the release of frozen assets and authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
President Masoud Pezeshkian remains a prominent advocate for a negotiated resolution, cautioning that Iran risks overextending itself amid economic challenges. He stated, "It would be better to bring the war to an end, since today we enjoy power and dignity and the entire world approved our victory, and the U.S. is hated."
In contrast, Rezaei has suggested that a deal could be possible if the U.S. changes its approach. He recently communicated with Pakistani mediator Gen. Asim Munir, urging the U.S. to take practical steps to implement the ceasefire conditions.
Political analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi highlighted significant divisions regarding the country's future direction, noting that hard-liners oppose normalization with the U.S. as their survival relies on ongoing conflict.
Currently, there are no indications of new protests, despite increasing difficulties for Iranians in affording basic necessities. Taeb's leadership of the Basij is viewed as a preemptive measure against potential unrest, with Bruchmann commenting on the strategic placement of an intelligence figure in charge of the force responsible for crackdowns.
Taeb, who previously led the Basij during the 2009 protests, has been tasked with enhancing the group's societal presence and promoting its ideology against perceived external threats. His recent statements suggest a focus on strengthening national unity in response to U.S. economic pressures.
Keath reported from Cairo. Associated Press writer Nasser Karimi in Tehran contributed.