An average of 10 commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz per day over the past 10 days, the lowest since May, according to shipping data released on Monday. The 10-day moving average was 10 on Sunday, down from more than 15 on Friday and nearly 13 on Saturday, as reported by analytics firm Kpler. Only two vessels passed through the strait on Saturday, while six went through on Sunday, primarily using the Iranian route.
US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, as stated by US Central Command, including one near Kharg Island, Iran’s key oil export hub, following attacks by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on US warships in the region. In response, the IRGC navy announced on Saturday that it targeted three oil tankers traveling unauthorized routes in the strait, along with three additional US vessels in other areas.
The three Iranian tankers involved were identified as Downy, Stark I, and Kylo, also known as Noxen, according to maritime intelligence firm Marisks. The attacks on Saturday were described as a “major escalation in the maritime conflict” by Marisks. They noted that commercial tankers are now being used as instruments of reciprocal economic pressure, which blurs the line between military confrontation and commercial shipping.
The risk is assessed as extreme for Iranian or Iran-linked vessels and materially elevated for US-linked or US-escorted shipping throughout the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman. Since July 6, there have been 27 projectile strike incidents resulting in damage to vessels operating in and around the Strait of Hormuz, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) in its weekly report. On Sunday, one very large crude carrier and three bulk carriers laden with metals, grains, or oilseeds entered the strait, while no VLCCs have exited since Wednesday, according to Kpler data.