A new poll conducted by Hart Research for TelevisaUnivision indicates that Democrats have made significant gains among Latino voters in key House districts since 2024. The poll, shared exclusively with Axios, reveals that Democrats now lead with 58% support compared to 35% for Republicans on the generic congressional ballot. This 23-point margin is notably larger than the 11-point edge that Kamala Harris held over Donald Trump in the same sample's self-reported 2024 vote.
The findings suggest a reversal of trends observed in the last presidential election, where Trump nearly equalized support among Latino voters. Following the 2024 election, Republicans anticipated that Trump's near-parity with Democrats would solidify a lasting political shift. However, the latest data indicates that dissatisfaction with high prices and Trump's immigration policies may be driving Latino voters back toward the Democratic Party.
In specific congressional districts, such as three in Texas, Latino voter support has shifted from a 44-44 split in 2024 to a 56-36 advantage for Democrats. Similarly, in two swing districts in Florida, support has moved from a narrow Trump lead to a 13-point advantage for Democrats.
The poll also highlights that 11% of Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 are now backing Democratic congressional candidates. Overall, Trump's approval rating among Latino voters in these battleground areas is low, with 63% disapproving of his performance and 65% disapproving of his handling of prices and the cost of living.
TelevisaUnivision Senior Vice President Kate Coleman noted that Latino voters are not strictly aligned with one party and are attentive to which candidates engage with their concerns. The survey, which included 1,500 Latino registered voters in 17 battleground congressional districts, was conducted from August 6 to August 17, 2026, with a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.