<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The most recent government cost estimate for the war in <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/iran" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Iran</a> is roughly $38 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), although the actual cost is believed to be higher.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The CBO released its latest cost <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-09/62756-Iran.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">analysis</a> on September 15, 2026, in response to a request from Rep. Brandon Boyle (D-PA), the ranking member of the House Budget Committee. The estimate is based on data up to August 1, 2026, and costs have continued to rise since then. The $38 billion estimate includes expenses related to replacing expended munitions, equipment lost in battle, increased flying hours, and increased fuel costs, among others.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This estimate aligns closely with a statement from Secretary of War <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/pete-hegseth" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Pete Hegseth</a>, who informed the Senate Appropriations Committee on July 21, 2026, that the department's new estimated cost of the war in Iran was $37.5 billion.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-munitions">Munitions</h2>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The U.S. military has conducted over 13,000 strikes in Iran since the war began, with that number increasing since the April ceasefire. This total does not include critical munitions required for air defense against potential Iranian retaliation.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">While senior U.S. military leaders have disputed claims of a shortfall in these critical munitions, it is acknowledged that it will take years to replenish the munitions used rapidly in this conflict.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The U.S. military also utilized a significant number of air defense interceptors during the Israel-Iran conflict that lasted 12 days last year.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">According to the CBO report, although the Department of Defense (DoD) does not disclose the number of munitions on hand, a comparison of reported expenditures of missile defense interceptors with total purchases indicates that the U.S. has likely used between one-half and two-thirds of its inventory of those munitions since June 2025. The CBO estimates that it could take at least five years to rebuild the inventory of interceptors, even with increased production.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The administration has publicly requested supplemental funding of $87 billion, with $67 billion allocated for the Pentagon, of which approximately $21 billion is designated for munitions.</p>
<div class="wp-block-image"> <figure class="alignleft size-large is-resized"><img alt="A U.S. Army air defense artilleryman inspects a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense launcher in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. THAAD is an anti-ballistic missile system designed to intercept missiles in their terminal phase." class="wp-image-4728515" height="1024" src="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/THAAD.jpg?w=683" style="width: 527px; height: auto;" width="683" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A U.S. Army air defense artilleryman inspects a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) launcher in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. THAAD is an anti-ballistic missile system designed to intercept missiles in their terminal phase. (U.S. Army photo)</figcaption></figure> </div>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">A report from the Department of Defense Inspector General released on September 12, 2026, indicated that munitions expenditure in [Operation Epic Fury] has led to strategic inventory shortfalls and highlighted industrial base bottlenecks for munitions resupply.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The CBO report noted that the munitions shortfall could become particularly problematic if a conflict arises with an adversary possessing a substantial arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, such as China, which maintains such an arsenal that could significantly impact a military conflict involving Taiwan.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Among the notable losses for the military was a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense radar system, with the CBO estimating the cost of one THAAD radar at $500 million.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-equipment-losses">Equipment losses</h2>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The U.S. military has reported approximately 50 aircraft damaged or destroyed during the war, including up to 30 MQ-9 Reaper drones, which are unmanned intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance drones. Some aircraft were shot down, while others were destroyed while on the ground. Iran managed to destroy an E-3 airborne early warning and control aircraft and damage five KC-135 refueling aircraft while they were on the ground, raising concerns about base protection from aerial attacks.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Lt. Gen. (Ret) David Nahom commented, “I’m much more worried about the assets when they’re on the ground. The F-22 does very well in combat, and I would not want to be an opposing country to a four-ship of F-22s in the air when they’re full of missiles and ready to go. But when those F-22s are sitting on the deck, waiting for gas and waiting for new weapons, there’s a certain vulnerability there.”</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Iranian forces also shot down an F-15E, an F-35A, and an AH-64 helicopter, although no air force personnel were killed in these incidents. Additionally, Kuwaiti forces accidentally shot down three F-15Es during the early days of the war.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The CBO estimated the cost of equipment lost in the war at approximately $1.9 billion, which could rise to about $3.3 billion if the department opts to replace all lost aircraft, some of which are no longer in production.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-personnel">Personnel</h2>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In addition to monetary costs, 18 service members have died during the war, with over 800 troops sustaining injuries, according to the Defense Casualty Analysis System, which tracks casualties across all conflicts.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Seven fatalities occurred due to non-Iranian attacks, including six airmen killed in a KC-135 refueling accident over Iraq and a navy pilot who crashed into the Arabian Sea. Of the remaining 11 fatalities, six were due to an Iranian drone attack in Kuwait, and one more occurred in a separate attack in Saudi Arabia during the early days of the war.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Three additional service members were killed in a July 17 attack on Muwaffaq al-Salti Air Base in Jordan, and the last fatality occurred in Iraq two days later during a controlled detonation of unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian attack drone.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Currently, 50,000 service members are deployed in the Middle East, many of whom are on extended assignments. The <em>USS Abraham Lincoln</em> has been in the region for the duration of the war but recently departed amid concerns regarding the well-being of the troops aboard.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-bases-infrastructure">Bases/Infrastructure</h2>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Iran has targeted several U.S. military and diplomatic bases across the Middle East during the conflict, though the total cost of damages remains unclear, partly due to the department's plans for rebuilding the facilities.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Pentagon has not disclosed the extent of damage to various bases in the region and did not provide the CBO with information regarding the value of damaged or destroyed equipment and property, resulting in those costs not being included in the war estimate.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Acting U.S. Navy Secretary <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense/4708941/trump-nominates-hung-cao-navy-secretary/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Hung Cao</a> recently acknowledged that Iranian forces caused significant damage to Naval Support Activity Bahrain, home of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, marking the first instance of a senior Pentagon official publicly discussing the damages with specificity.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In light of the Air Force's losses in the region, Chief of Staff of the Air Force Gen. Ken Wilsbach announced the establishment of a new career path for “point defense,” aimed at defending specific stationary targets, such as bases. He stated, “If every base is going to be threatened, we have to have somebody that knows how to defend it.”</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Pentagon's comptroller, Jay Hurst, has indicated uncertainty regarding the future posture in the region and noted that host countries may contribute to rebuilding costs.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Diplomatic infrastructure in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates has suffered an estimated $184 million in damages as of the end of June, according to the Pentagon inspector general report.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-continuing-costs">Continuing costs</h2>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The war, while currently at a low level of intensity, continues, and costs are expected to rise.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">If the conflict maintains the relative quiet observed in May and June, it would incur costs of approximately $2 billion per month. In a slightly more active period, such as July, where daily U.S. bombings and Iranian retaliation occurred, costs would be around $3 billion, according to the CBO report.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Should the war escalate to the intensity seen before the April 7 ceasefire, costs would significantly increase.</p>