Fuel shortages, drone strikes, and rumors of mobilization are contributing to anxiety and war fatigue in Russia. Support for peace talks is reportedly growing among the Russian populace as the Kremlin prepares for parliamentary elections scheduled from September 18 to 20.
According to a survey conducted by state pollster FOM, nearly half of respondents indicated that a sense of alarm is prevalent among those around them. Independent pollster ExtremeScan reported that 60% of Russians believe the war against Ukraine has negatively impacted their daily lives.
Margarita Zavadskaya, a sociologist and senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, stated that increasing uncertainty is driving anxiety and war fatigue. She noted that rising prices, internet restrictions, fuel shortages due to Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries, and rumors of another mobilization are complicating future planning for many Russians. Some individuals are reportedly leaving the country out of fear of being drafted after the elections.
Elena Koneva, founder of ExtremeScan, highlighted that people are beginning to question the personal costs of the war.
The elections will be the first parliamentary vote in Russia since 2022 and the first during the ongoing Ukraine conflict. While the Kremlin is expected to control the official results, it will closely monitor voter turnout. Zavadskaya remarked that the Kremlin is capable of manipulating figures, but the real concern lies in the potential backlash.
Although elections in authoritarian regimes like Russia typically do not lead to democratic change, they serve as a gauge of public loyalty. For President Vladimir Putin, maintaining the appearance of support for his party, United Russia, is crucial.
Ilya Yashin, a Russian opposition politician in exile, stated that the elections are vital for demonstrating majority support for the ruling party and justifying continued military engagement.
In the fifth year of the Ukraine war, there are no indications that the Kremlin intends to cease hostilities. United Russia is campaigning on a platform that emphasizes victory in the war, with candidates presented as veterans of the conflict.
However, many Russians reportedly desire an end to the war. Yulia Galyamina, an opposition politician still residing in Russia, noted that while many people continue to support Putin, there is a growing anti-war sentiment.
Polling data from the independent Levada Center indicates that six in ten Russians favor peace negotiations with Ukraine. Zavadskaya suggested that recent Kremlin indications of potential peace talks in October may be a strategy to placate the electorate.
The liberal opposition party Yabloko, which is the only registered political group opposing the war, has seen a rise in popularity, particularly among younger Russians. Despite a July rating below 5%, support for Yabloko has increased, with 18% of respondents indicating they would vote for the party according to ExtremeScan. However, Yabloko has been barred from participating in the upcoming elections due to a recent court ruling.
Koneva stated that the support for Yabloko reflects public sentiment regarding the war. With Yabloko excluded from the election, alternative avenues for expressing dissent are being explored.
Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Alexei Navalny, and opposition politician Maxim Katz are encouraging supporters to vote for any party other than United Russia to diminish the ruling party's electoral outcome. Yabloko is advocating for voters to spoil their ballots.
Yashin emphasized that the act of voting itself is significant, suggesting that showing up at polling stations at noon on September 20 would serve as a visible sign of public discontent.
DW Russian conducted an anonymous survey asking readers about their voting intentions, with many indicating they would heed Navalnaya's and Katz's advice. Some respondents expressed their disillusionment with the electoral process, stating that they do not wish to legitimize Putin's regime.