In the lead-up to the Duma elections, the Kremlin intensified measures known as "ballot sterilisation" to eliminate factors that could indicate public dissatisfaction. Candidates from managed opposition parties, including the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), have faced arrests or disqualifications, reducing the likelihood of a protest vote against the ruling United Russia party. Last month, Yabloko, the only openly antiwar party, was barred from participating in the elections.
Historically, opposition leaders, such as the late Alexey Navalny, have encouraged voting for these parties as a form of dissent against the regime. However, the Kremlin is taking precautions this time, as widespread public dissatisfaction poses a risk of dissent manifesting at the polls. The elections are expected to demonstrate national unity and support for President Vladimir Putin and United Russia.
Yabloko is the last officially registered political party in Russia that supports democratic principles and opposes the war in Ukraine. Despite enduring political repression, Yabloko was registered for the Duma elections in July, likely to project an image of electoral freedom. Prior to the campaign, Yabloko had approximately 4 percent support, but it was anticipated to receive only 1 to 2 percent of the vote, below the 5 percent threshold needed to enter the legislature.
However, Yabloko's registration sparked a surge of interest, with searches for the party’s name and the word "elections" increasing fivefold on Yandex, surpassing searches for United Russia. This interest was reflected on social media, where exiled political leaders, including Yulia Navalnaya, Navalny's widow, expressed support for Yabloko.
In August, the Supreme Court revoked Yabloko's registration, citing attempts to undermine the electoral process. The CPRF, while not deregistered, has faced restrictions, with some candidates removed from the ballot. For instance, Nikolay Bondarenko, a popular figure with over two million YouTube subscribers, was barred for allegedly using "extremist symbols" related to a social media post featuring Navalny.
Despite the crackdown, neither Yabloko nor CPRF posed a significant threat to United Russia's majority without these measures. The Kremlin has refined its electoral manipulation techniques, including e-voting and limiting independent election observers, to secure desired outcomes. The current target is a 50 percent voter turnout with 50 percent support for United Russia, a reduction from a previous goal of 55 percent due to rising public dissatisfaction.
The elections occur amid growing public discontent due to the war in Ukraine, with rising inflation and fuel shortages affecting many Russians. According to the independent pollster Levada Center, public anxiety has reached levels not seen since September 2022, when mass mobilization was announced. The Kremlin is wary that this discontent could translate into protest votes, necessitating further manipulation of election results.
If Yabloko were to achieve a double-digit result, it would pose a significant challenge for the Kremlin, which is concerned about maintaining President Putin's reputation and the perception of support for United Russia. The Kremlin's political managers are micromanaging the electoral process to ensure results that reflect unity and support, with the public mood being a concern primarily until the elections conclude. Afterward, the state may intensify political repression and implement unpopular measures, such as increased internet control or austerity policies.
The Kremlin's political managers, alongside security agencies, aim to maintain control to allow Putin to continue the war in Ukraine as needed.