Iraq Commemorates Sovereignty Days as US Troops Withdraw

Iraq is set to hold four "Sovereignty Days," a national holiday marking the complete withdrawal of US troops from the country, highlighting the significance of the exit after more than two decades of foreign intervention. The withdrawal deadline on Wednesday confirmed the departure of a few hundred remaining US soldiers, who had served in advisory roles in a coalition operation against ISIL (ISIS) launched in 2015. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's exit plan aligns with his broader vision of reasserting Iraqi state authority, which includes efforts to disarm all militias in the country by June 2027. This includes several powerful pro-Iran groups that have conducted attacks in the region amid ongoing tensions involving the US and Israel. At the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) last week, al-Zaidi stated that his government aims to ensure that the state is the ultimate decision-maker in matters of peace and war, with weapons remaining under the control of constitutional institutions. He noted, "With the end of the international coalition’s mission in Iraq, we are moving our relationship with our strategic partners to a new phase, moving from military cooperation to economic and development cooperation in service of our common interests." The US withdrawal appears to be part of a strategy by al-Zaidi to politically weaken influential militias, including those linked to Iran, according to Douglas Silliman, former US ambassador to Iraq and Kuwait. These militias have historically cited the presence of the US military and other foreign actors, such as Turkey, as justification for maintaining their own weapons and command structures. Some have indicated they will refuse to disarm. Silliman remarked, "The prime minister is clearly trying to build a political case to Iraqis that these forces that are more beholden to Iran, and have used weapons without government authorization, no longer have a political reason to have those weapons." This strategy carries risks, potentially allowing Iran to exert greater influence in Iraq and leading to domestic tensions. Increased pressure from the US may arise if Iraq-based groups continue to target American assets. Silliman stated, "It’s going to be a very difficult series of decisions for both the militias and for Prime Minister al-Zaidi and his defense team." The Iraqi government's approach to the end of the US-led coalition’s deployment, known as "Operation Inherent Resolve," will significantly impact Iraq's future security. The country has remained relatively stable since the 2017 territorial defeat of ISIL, despite ongoing regional conflicts. This stability has persisted since the US began its troop withdrawal in 2020, with remaining personnel consolidating at an airbase in Erbil, in northern Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region, by the end of 2025. Al-Zaidi has sought to implement safeguards in the disarmament process, extending the deadline from September 30, 2026, to June 2027 for all weapons to be under state control. He informed The New York Times that both the US and Iran-aligned militias have assured they will refrain from attacks for 90 days following the US withdrawal to prevent immediate escalation. However, Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House, noted that militias aligned with Iran remain active and continue to target US interests. Al-Zaidi's government has expressed concerns that the US may no longer view Iraq as a strategic partner, potentially leading to sanctions or increased military actions against Iraq. Mohammad Salih, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, indicated that there may be underlying apprehension regarding the withdrawal, despite public statements suggesting confidence in Iraq's security capabilities. The operational implications of the US-led anti-ISIL mission's conclusion are still unclear. Following the withdrawal, Iraq and the US may revert to a 2008 Strategic Framework and Security Agreement, which provides for continued, albeit non-binding, US security support for Iraq. The specifics of future security cooperation, particularly regarding intelligence and logistical support, remain undefined. A regional source indicated that the relationship is likely to shift from a visible military presence to a focus on intelligence, training, and institutional cooperation. Experts have noted that Iraqi security forces have made significant progress in countering ISIL, which may mitigate operational challenges following the US troop exit. However, key security positions in the Iraqi government remain unfilled, and the military lacks substantial air defense capabilities, which could pose vulnerabilities. Kurdish officials have criticized the US withdrawal, citing increased attacks on the Kurdish region by Iran-aligned militias that were previously deterred by US defense systems. Masrour Barzani, prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, expressed concerns about the lack of adequate defense systems following the withdrawal. The US troop withdrawal is part of a broader effort to transition the US-Iraqi relationship from military to economic cooperation. Al-Zaidi has promised an economic renaissance, aiming to enhance Iraq’s petrochemical industry and develop new fossil fuel delivery routes. The US has maintained a significant diplomatic presence in Iraq, with the largest embassy located in Baghdad. Experts suggest that deeper economic integration may be hindered by regional conflicts, which complicate cooperation. Lahib Higel, deputy director of the MENA program at the International Crisis Group, emphasized the need for the US to support Iraq's state institutions while avoiding pressure for military confrontations with pro-Iran groups. She stated, "Washington cannot dictate Baghdad’s relationship with Tehran, nor can Tehran dictate Iraq’s relationship with Washington. What Iraq instead needs is the space to find its own balance."