A recent NBC News/Telemundo poll indicates that Latino voters, who previously supported Donald Trump in the 2024 election, are now shifting their support away from him and the Republican Party. The poll, conducted from September 21 to 28, shows Trump's approval rating among Latino voters at 27%. Two-thirds of respondents believe his administration's deportation policies have gone too far, and three-quarters disapprove of his handling of the economy and cost of living. This shift presents an opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming 2026 elections, particularly in states and districts with significant Latino populations.
The poll results reveal that a greater percentage of Latino voters hold negative views of the Republican Party than at any point since 2016. Democrats currently lead on issues such as the economy, immigration, cost of living, corruption, and healthcare. In the past, Latino voters gave Trump a 4-point edge over then-Vice President Kamala Harris on economic handling, but now Democrats hold a 21-point advantage on this issue.
Democrats also have a 24-point lead among Latino voters regarding control of Congress, with 59% preferring Democratic control compared to 35% for Republicans. This is a significant increase from the 2024 election, although it has not reached the levels seen in 2018. Nearly 20% of Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 now do not prefer a Republican-controlled Congress, with 14% supporting Democrats and 8% undecided.
The Republican Party had focused on Trump’s gains among Latino voters to maintain its House majority, particularly in Florida and Texas, where new districts were drawn that appeared solidly Republican based on 2024 results. However, these districts are becoming more competitive as Latino voter preferences change.
Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Micah Roberts, noted that the results indicate a reversal of Republican gains with Latino voters, suggesting potential challenges for Republican candidates in the midterms. Roberts described Latino voters as 'the swingiest of swing groups' and indicated that the changes observed since 2024 would not have occurred without Trump's influence.