In a recent Quinnipiac University poll conducted from October 1 to October 5, 2026, 59 percent of likely voters in Pennsylvania support incumbent Governor Josh Shapiro, while 34 percent support Republican challenger Stacy Garrity. Libertarian candidate Ken Krawchuk received 2 percent of the support, and 5 percent of respondents did not choose a candidate. This poll is the first of likely voters in Pennsylvania for the 2026 election cycle and cannot be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.
Support for Shapiro among Democrats stands at 95 percent, while 2 percent support Garrity and 3 percent did not choose a candidate. Among Republicans, 79 percent support Garrity, 17 percent support Shapiro, 2 percent support Krawchuk, and 3 percent did not choose a candidate. Among independents, 62 percent support Shapiro, 23 percent support Garrity, 5 percent support Krawchuk, and 8 percent did not choose a candidate.
Fifty-five percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Shapiro, while 29 percent have an unfavorable opinion, and 14 percent have not heard enough about him. In contrast, 22 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Garrity, 32 percent have an unfavorable opinion, and 44 percent have not heard enough about her.
Tim Malloy, a polling analyst at Quinnipiac University, commented, "One of the country's most popular governors gets a rousing endorsement from Pennsylvania's likely voters in a race that looks like a rout."
Regarding overall satisfaction, 56 percent of likely voters are either very satisfied (8 percent) or somewhat satisfied (48 percent) with the current state of affairs in Pennsylvania, while 42 percent are somewhat dissatisfied (25 percent) or very dissatisfied (17 percent).
In terms of job approval ratings, Governor Josh Shapiro has a 63 percent approval rating, with 30 percent disapproving and 7 percent not offering an opinion. Senator John Fetterman has a 41 percent approval rating, while Senator Dave McCormick has a 37 percent approval rating. President Donald Trump has a 37 percent approval rating, with 60 percent disapproving.
Fifty-six percent of likely voters support the Democratic Party winning control of the U.S. House of Representatives, while 39 percent support the Republican Party. Among independents, 56 percent favor the Democrats, while 27 percent favor the Republicans.
When asked about AI data centers in Pennsylvania, 64 percent of likely voters believe they will do more harm than good, while 24 percent think they will do more good than harm. Among Democrats, 80 percent think AI data centers will do more harm, while 72 percent of independents share this view. Republicans are divided, with 40 percent believing they will do more harm and 44 percent believing they will do more good.
The poll surveyed 1,159 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll has been directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D., since 1994 and conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues.