Parti Québécois projected to win Quebec election, posing challenges for Canadian unity

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon was elected as Quebec's new premier on Monday. Canadian media projects the sovereigntist Parti Québécois (PQ) will secure a minority win in Monday's provincial election in Quebec, making Paul St-Pierre Plamondon the incoming premier. This marks the first time the PQ has been in power since 2014. It may present a challenge for Prime Minister Mark Carney, potentially leading to confrontations with Quebec over issues such as immigration and the monarchy. The party has pledged to hold a referendum on Quebec's independence, similar to an upcoming vote in the province of Alberta later this month. The majority French-speaking province has held previous votes on this issue in 1980 and 1995, with polls indicating only 30% of Quebecers support such a move. Plamondon has stated that the independence vote would occur after US President Donald Trump leaves office. Carney may face dual unity challenges in different regions of the country, depending on the outcome of the separation vote in Alberta. Trump is expected to leave office in approximately two years, suggesting that if Plamondon follows through on his pledge, a third plebiscite on independence could be scheduled for 2029 or 2030. Aside from sovereignty, Plamondon has expressed a willingness to confront Ottawa if it is perceived as overstepping provincial interests. During his campaign, he indicated plans to pressure Ottawa on immigration issues, vowing to oppose any increases mandated by the Carney government. He also committed to abolishing the monarchy in Quebec and reallocating funds spent on its institutions to social services. "We are going to do what we have to do to get the monarchy out of Quebec, repatriate those funds, and send them to social causes," he told reporters in late September. For instance, Plamondon proposed defunding Quebec's lieutenant-governor's office, which represents King Charles III in the province, suggesting that the funds could be redirected to address homelessness. Plamondon was among the Quebec lawmakers who refused to pledge allegiance to the King in 2022, leading to a provincial law that now makes the oath of allegiance optional. His plan to withdraw financial support for the lieutenant-governor's office may face significant legal challenges due to the monarchy's central role in Canada's constitution. Such a move could also cast doubt on future Quebec laws, as one of the lieutenant-governor's key roles is to grant royal assent to new legislation. When questioned about these challenges, Plamondon indicated he is prepared for a legal battle with the federal government. The success of the Parti Québécois on Monday is partly attributed to public fatigue with the previous Coalition Avenir Québec government. Coalition Avenir Québec focused on safeguarding Quebec's identity and language during its eight years in office, but its longtime leader, François Legault, eventually lost significant support among voters. Attempts to revive the party by replacing Legault with a new leader, outgoing Premier Christine Fréchette, were unsuccessful. Fréchette conceded her own re-election race in Trois-Rivières shortly before 22:00 local time, stating that she would collaborate with St-Pierre Plamondon on the transition. "Governing Quebec is the greatest honour I have ever had," she said. "I have Quebec tattooed on my heart." The Quebec Liberal Party secured the second-most seats, while the Quebec Conservative Party gained seats. Prime Minister Carney, who leads the federal Liberal party, remains popular in Quebec, although his support has recently declined as US President Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on Canada in August, following a breakdown in trade talks. Quebec is among the provinces most affected by the latest US tariffs, with experts at global forecasting firm Oxford Economics projecting a C$2 billion impact for the province. Carney congratulated Plamondon on his victory late on Monday and expressed a commitment to work together with the party. "Building a stronger Québec is core to our mission of building a stronger Canada," he stated in a social media post. "I look forward to working with you to support Québec's businesses and workers impacted by tariffs, create more good jobs, work to end homelessness, and get more homes built across Québec."