Parti Quebecois Wins Quebec Election, Plans Third Independence Referendum

The Parti Quebecois (PQ) has won the most seats in Quebec’s election and will form the next government in the predominantly French-speaking Canadian province, according to media reports. The election result on October 6, 2026, revives the question of whether the province should leave Canada, posing a challenge to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s message of national unity. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the party’s leader, is set to become premier. During the campaign, he promised a third referendum on leaving Canada during his first term, although he stated he would wait until U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office in January 2029. It is not yet clear whether the party has reached the 64 seats needed for a majority in the 127-seat National Assembly. If it falls short, it would lead a minority government and require support from opposition lawmakers to pass major legislation and survive confidence votes. The PQ last governed the province from 2012 to 2014. This victory marks a significant recovery for the PQ, which won only three seats in the 2022 provincial election. Its return also ends eight years in power for the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ), a center-right Quebec nationalist party that does not support independence. Daniel Beland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, told The Associated Press that the victory reflects Quebec’s multiparty system, where support is divided among several parties, rather than a surge in secessionist sentiment. He noted that support for independence remains at about 30 percent, which is low by historical standards. Beland stated that a secessionist government in Quebec represents a new national-unity challenge for Carney, particularly with another independence-related vote approaching in Alberta. He remarked, 'Seeing that a pro-independence party won in Quebec barely two weeks before an independence-related referendum takes place in Alberta might suggest to the Trump administration that national unity remains a major issue in Canada despite the popularity of Mark Carney.' Quebec held two previous referendums on independence, in 1980 and 1995, both of which resulted in a rejection of secession. The second vote was decided by a narrow margin, but there has been no further referendum in the three decades since.