Republican Byron Donalds holds a 7-percentage-point advantage over Democrat David Jolly in the Florida governor’s race, according to a new NBC South Florida/Telemundo Station Group poll conducted on October 7, 2026. Donalds, a congressman from the southwest corner of the state, is at 48% in the poll, compared with Jolly’s 41%. This advantage is within the poll’s margin of error, but Donalds has the edge in most of the range of possibilities. In the Senate race, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody is leading by 10 points against Democratic challenger Angie Nixon, with Moody at 50% and Nixon at 40%. Nixon, who is aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, entered the general election after a surprise primary victory over Democrat Alexander Vindman in August.
The poll highlights the dynamics among Florida's Hispanic voters, a significant demographic in the state. In 2024, Donald Trump won Hispanic-heavy Miami-Dade County by approximately 11 points, a notable shift from the previous election when Joe Biden won the county by 7 points in 2020. Currently, Donalds leads Jolly 48%-43% among Hispanic voters, while Moody is ahead 47%-40% over Nixon. Despite this, Trump's job performance rating is negative, with 49% disapproving and 45% approving.
Democrats have expressed optimism about the 2026 elections, noting that public polling indicates competitive races in traditionally Republican states. However, this poll suggests limitations to that momentum in Florida. Democrats argue that recent special election victories indicate progress in regaining support from Hispanic voters, partly due to dissatisfaction with Trump’s immigration policies and the rising cost of living. Suzan DelBene, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, commented on the significant swings observed in legislative races in Florida, attributing some of the discontent to broken promises regarding immigration enforcement.