Republicans Face Challenges as Latino Support Declines in South Texas

<p>Republicans are working to maintain the Latino support that had previously indicated a potential political shift in their favor. This change is particularly evident in South Texas, where President Trump achieved significant success in the 2024 elections, leading Republicans to adjust their strategies in anticipation of continued support.</p><p><strong>Why it matters:</strong> The situation in South Texas highlights a notable decline in Latino support for Republicans. In the 2024 exit polls, Trump received 55% of the Latino vote in Texas, winning 14 of the 18 counties near the border and all four counties in the Rio Grande Valley.</p><hr /><ul><li>However, recent polling indicates a rise in Trump's disapproval ratings among Latinos in Texas, reaching 67% since 2024. Meanwhile, Democrats have established a significant lead in generic House ballot polling, with a 54% to 28% advantage.</li><li>Democratic campaigns and allied organizations are increasing their financial investments in races throughout the Rio Grande Valley.</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom in:</strong> The most pronounced shift is observed in TX-15, where Rep. Monica De La Cruz represented a key victory for the GOP in South Texas.</p><ul><li>Trump would have won the newly redrawn district by 18 percentage points in 2024, while De La Cruz previously won her race by 14 points under the old district map.</li><li>On September 25, the Cook Political Report shifted the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up, citing polling that shows the race is either tied or leaning towards Democrat Bobby Pulido.</li></ul><p><strong>By the numbers:</strong> According to AdImpact data reported by the Texas Tribune, Democratic campaigns and groups are outspending Republicans on Spanish-language advertisements in two of the three competitive House districts in the Rio Grande Valley.</p><ul><li>In TX-34, held by Vicente Gonzalez (D), Democrats have spent $2.7 million on Spanish-language ads, compared to $1.6 million from Republicans.</li><li>In TX-15, Democratic groups have invested more than twice as much as their Republican counterparts on Spanish-language advertisements.</li><li>In TX-28, Republicans have slightly outspent Democrats in efforts to unseat Henry Cuellar (D).</li></ul><p><strong>Zoom out:</strong> TX-34 is also categorized as a Toss Up, while TX-28 is considered Lean Democratic.</p><ul><li>The newly redrawn TX-35 has shifted from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.</li><li>The House Majority PAC has initiated another series of advertisements in TX-15, TX-28, and TX-34, aimed at defending Democratic incumbents while targeting De La Cruz.</li></ul><p><strong>The bottom line:</strong> A recent NBC News/Telemundo poll indicates that nationally, Latinos favor Democratic control of Congress by a margin of 59% to 35%, representing a 24-point advantage compared to the previous election cycle.</p><ul><li>A TelevisaUnivision poll found that Latino voters in three competitive Texas House districts have shifted from a 44%-44% split in their 2024 presidential vote to a 56%-36% preference for Democrats in the 2026 congressional ballot.</li></ul>